06-16-2025, 07:03 PM
I believe that that YouTube video is both a blatant troll and has very valid points.
The thing is, it is unrealistic to expect mobile GNU(-like)/Linux(*) to ever become mainstream as on servers. The reasons are actually pointed out pretty well by the video. But I doubt anyone has that expectation to begin with. A more realistic goal is to become a growing niche as on desktops, increasing slowly to 1%, then 2% marketshare.
And no, we are not going to get major app developers on board that way. We will have to continue relying on unofficial native reimplementations where possible (e.g., Flare (either with FLARE_ENABLE_PRIMARY_DEVICE or paired with signal-cli) instead of Signal) and on compatibility layers such as Waydroid or Android Translation Layer, or to do without the affected apps altogether.
Where I have an issue with the video is the aggressive clickbait wording (starting from the subject) and the absolute statements that are just false. (E.g., "we are all using Android or iOS" – well, no, I am not. Maybe >99% of smartphone users are (though there are still people using only dumb cellphones or none at all, too, who are not even counted there), but that is still not all.) Just because something is not commercially viable for mainstream companies does not mean it will necessarily cease to exist, because both companies such as PINE64 serving niche markets and old mainstream hardware getting repurposed by projects such as postmarketOS are a thing.
In addition, the video also has some outright wrong numbers, such as claiming that the smartphone duopoly companies make more money than the GDP of Luxemburg, which the comments on YouTube point out is just mathematically wrong.
So, will mobile GNU(-like)/Linux(*) become mainstream any time soon? No way. Ever? Unlikely, but we cannot know. But is it dead or about to die? No way either!
(*) With "GNU(-like)/Linux", I mean anything that works like a GNU/Linux distribution, even if it uses musl rather than glibc, as postmarketOS does. But in particular not anything Android/AOSP-based.
The thing is, it is unrealistic to expect mobile GNU(-like)/Linux(*) to ever become mainstream as on servers. The reasons are actually pointed out pretty well by the video. But I doubt anyone has that expectation to begin with. A more realistic goal is to become a growing niche as on desktops, increasing slowly to 1%, then 2% marketshare.
And no, we are not going to get major app developers on board that way. We will have to continue relying on unofficial native reimplementations where possible (e.g., Flare (either with FLARE_ENABLE_PRIMARY_DEVICE or paired with signal-cli) instead of Signal) and on compatibility layers such as Waydroid or Android Translation Layer, or to do without the affected apps altogether.
Where I have an issue with the video is the aggressive clickbait wording (starting from the subject) and the absolute statements that are just false. (E.g., "we are all using Android or iOS" – well, no, I am not. Maybe >99% of smartphone users are (though there are still people using only dumb cellphones or none at all, too, who are not even counted there), but that is still not all.) Just because something is not commercially viable for mainstream companies does not mean it will necessarily cease to exist, because both companies such as PINE64 serving niche markets and old mainstream hardware getting repurposed by projects such as postmarketOS are a thing.
In addition, the video also has some outright wrong numbers, such as claiming that the smartphone duopoly companies make more money than the GDP of Luxemburg, which the comments on YouTube point out is just mathematically wrong.
So, will mobile GNU(-like)/Linux(*) become mainstream any time soon? No way. Ever? Unlikely, but we cannot know. But is it dead or about to die? No way either!
(*) With "GNU(-like)/Linux", I mean anything that works like a GNU/Linux distribution, even if it uses musl rather than glibc, as postmarketOS does. But in particular not anything Android/AOSP-based.